Will EV growth follow the S-Curve as with other new technologies?

S-Curves for some new technologies. (Source: The Osborne Effect..Clean Technica)

With many cities and a few countries banning the purchase of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars¹, including China, the world’s largest car market, the growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) numbers is expected to grow. This growth will be assisted by the fact that battery prices are reducing² and some car manufacturers will increase the number of BEV models for sale or will exclusively build BEVs in the near future.

The brands choosing to make BEVs only include Tesla, VW, including Audi, Volvo, Porsche and Honda³ ⁴. Those ditching diesel and choosing to focus on hybrid and electric cars include Renault, Peugeot, BMW and Mercedes⁵. Those ditching diesel now include Toyota, Kia, PSA (Peugeot, Citroen, Vauxhall), Renault, Fiat/Chrysler, Subaru, Volvo, Porsche, Cadillac, Suzuki, Bentley, Mitsubishi and Mazda with 1% diesel⁵. Many of these makes and others (like Hyundai and Nissan) have at least one BEV as prototype or in production, make plug in hybrids and/or make hydrogen fuel cell EVs.

With ICE vehicle bans; stricter vehicle emission standards; a decrease in battery prices making BEVs price competitive; a greater number of hybrids and EVs available and less ICE vehicles being made, the numbers of EVs will grow². As with the growth of other recent new technologies the expected growth rate will most likely be an S-curve⁴. This is where growth starts slowly then, at around 10% adoption, the growth rate picks up making a steep curve and finally, near saturation, the curve levels out again.

For example, in The Netherlands there are 23 different BEVs currently available. The market share of BEVs has been: 2016 (<1%), 2017 (1.92%), 2018 (5.4%) and 2019 is heading to 10% with a big sales increase in the first 5 months and more new BEVs to enter the market during the year⁶. So the S-curve is taking off, as it has done in Norway where EV market share in 2018 was 46%⁷. This effect is expected to be repeated in other countries.

The Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 by Bloomberg NEF predicts the global annual sales of new EVs could reach around 60% in 2040 with sales of new ICE cars at 40%². These developments are disrupting oil demand⁸ and helping countries reach their Paris climate change agreements.

References:
-1 Amsterdam is added to a list of 20 cities/territories and 10 countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles. Using Renewables, May 7, 2019.
-2 Electric Vehicle Outlook, 2019. Bloomberg NEF.
-3 Tesla thanks VW. Clean Technica, May 8 2019.
-4 The Osborne Effect on the auto Industry. Clean Technica, February 25 2019.
-5 A handy list of car companies that are ditching diesel. Greenpeace UK, October 5 2018.
-6 Fully electric vehicles could gobble !0% of Dutch auto market in 2019. Clean Technica, June 4 2019.
-7 Electric Vehicles: tracking clean energy process, International Energy Agency.
-8 Three shifts in road transport that threaten to disrupt oil demand. Bloomberg NEF, June 4 2019.
Post Script:

-Electric Vehicle adoption - about to explode? Or slow & steady? CleanTechnica, November 27, 2020.