Bloomberg National Energy Outlook sees 80% investment in clean energy to 2050.

Global power generation mix (Bloomberg NEO 2019)

The falling prices of renewable energy and batteries reshape the electricity system over the next 32 years. Solar grows the most, rising from 2% of the world’s generation to 22% in 2050. Batteries, peakers and dynamic demand help wind and solar energy reach more than 80% in some regions.

Bloomberg analysts see $13.3 trillion invested in new power generation up to 2050, of which 80% is zero carbon. They say "By 2050, coal-fired generation is down 51%, supplying just 12% of world electricity, from 27% today." Such that coal collapses everywhere except for Asia and that coal peaks globally in 2026.

Changes in some of the highest energy users are such that:
- In the U.S.coal and nuclear are pushed out due to the ageing of their plants. Utility-scale batteries for peaking purposes grow in significance from around 2035, supporting renewables penetration, which reaches 43% in 2050. In that year, emissions are 54% lower than today.
- In Europe, renewables make up 90% of the electricity mix by 2040, with wind and solar accounting for 80%.
- China continues to be the largest market for wind and solar and together they grow from 8% to 48% of total generation by 2050.
- India becomes the second-largest power system in the world by 2044, overtaking the U.S. It expands its zero carbon energy technologies to 67% by 2050.

Read more:
- Bloomberg New Energy Outlook 2019, June 2019.
- Solar, wind and batteries to deliver 50% of global power by 2050. RenewEconomy, June 19 2019.

UK government to commit to net-zero emissions by 2050

Offshore wind turbines - cheapest source of energy in the UK (Source: The Telegraph)

After a recommendation from the UK’s Committee on Climate Change in May, Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK government will set a target for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (i.e. carbon neutral) by 2050. Mrs May said there was a “moral duty to leave this world in a better condition than what we inherited.”

That means greenhouse gas emissions from homes, transport, farming and industry will have to be eliminated by using renewables or - in the most difficult examples - offset by planting trees or having industries that suck CO₂ out of the atmosphere.

It is important to note that Theresa May has announced that a group of young people will be selected to advise the government on priorities for environmental action. They will start their review in July.

Britain is the first G7 nation to propose this target, it has a population close to 67 million. Other nations (and states) have more ambitious or similar targets. Some of those with plans to be carbon neutral include:
- Norway (population ~5.4 million) by 2030.
- Finland (population ~5.6 million) by 2035.
- Sweden (population ~10 million) by 2045.
- California (population ~40 million) by 2045.
- Scotland (population ~5.3 million) by 2045.
- Denmark (population ~5.8 million) by 2050.
- New Zealand (population ~4.8 million) by 2050.
- Costa Rica (population ~5 million) by 2050.
- South Australia (population ~1.7 million) by 2050.
- The Australian Capital Territory (population now ~452,500) by 2045.

Read more:
- Climate Change: UK government to commit to 2050 target. BBC News, June 12 2019.
- Theresa May’s net-zero emissions target is a lot less impressive than it looks. The Guardian, June 13 2019.
- Net zero emissions by 2050, says UK government - now what? The Conversation, June 12 2019.

“Russian residents’ plea to be allowed into Canada as environmental refugees”

Siberian women from coal town. (Source: CBC News)

“In a video addressed to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dozens of residents from the Russian city of Kiselyovsk have pleaded to be allowed to migrate to Canada to avoid coal dust pollution from nearby mines."

"The residents argue that the widespread air pollution from coal mining in the Kuzbass is the equivalent of ‘discrimination on social grounds’ which is recognised by Canada as a factor in determining eligibility for refugee status.”

“While Canada’s refugee policy is silent on environmental factors, the residents’ plea has gained international attention. Coal dust pollution is so bad in Komerovo, 180 kilometres to the north of Kiselyovsk, that black snow covered the town in February.” From Coal Wire newsletter, Issue 279, June 19, 2019.

Read More:
Women in Siberian coal town beg Trudeau to let them come to Canada as environmental refugees. CBC News, June 11, 2019.

Will EV growth follow the S-Curve as with other new technologies?

S-Curves for some new technologies. (Source: The Osborne Effect..Clean Technica)

With many cities and a few countries banning the purchase of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars¹, including China, the world’s largest car market, the growth in battery electric vehicle (BEV) numbers is expected to grow. This growth will be assisted by the fact that battery prices are reducing² and some car manufacturers will increase the number of BEV models for sale or will exclusively build BEVs in the near future.

The brands choosing to make BEVs only include Tesla, VW, including Audi, Volvo, Porsche and Honda³ ⁴. Those ditching diesel and choosing to focus on hybrid and electric cars include Renault, Peugeot, BMW and Mercedes⁵. Those ditching diesel now include Toyota, Kia, PSA (Peugeot, Citroen, Vauxhall), Renault, Fiat/Chrysler, Subaru, Volvo, Porsche, Cadillac, Suzuki, Bentley, Mitsubishi and Mazda with 1% diesel⁵. Many of these makes and others (like Hyundai and Nissan) have at least one BEV as prototype or in production, make plug in hybrids and/or make hydrogen fuel cell EVs.

With ICE vehicle bans; stricter vehicle emission standards; a decrease in battery prices making BEVs price competitive; a greater number of hybrids and EVs available and less ICE vehicles being made, the numbers of EVs will grow². As with the growth of other recent new technologies the expected growth rate will most likely be an S-curve⁴. This is where growth starts slowly then, at around 10% adoption, the growth rate picks up making a steep curve and finally, near saturation, the curve levels out again.

For example, in The Netherlands there are 23 different BEVs currently available. The market share of BEVs has been: 2016 (<1%), 2017 (1.92%), 2018 (5.4%) and 2019 is heading to 10% with a big sales increase in the first 5 months and more new BEVs to enter the market during the year⁶. So the S-curve is taking off, as it has done in Norway where EV market share in 2018 was 46%⁷. This effect is expected to be repeated in other countries.

The Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 by Bloomberg NEF predicts the global annual sales of new EVs could reach around 60% in 2040 with sales of new ICE cars at 40%². These developments are disrupting oil demand⁸ and helping countries reach their Paris climate change agreements.

References:
-1 Amsterdam is added to a list of 20 cities/territories and 10 countries planning to ban fossil fuel vehicles. Using Renewables, May 7, 2019.
-2 Electric Vehicle Outlook, 2019. Bloomberg NEF.
-3 Tesla thanks VW. Clean Technica, May 8 2019.
-4 The Osborne Effect on the auto Industry. Clean Technica, February 25 2019.
-5 A handy list of car companies that are ditching diesel. Greenpeace UK, October 5 2018.
-6 Fully electric vehicles could gobble !0% of Dutch auto market in 2019. Clean Technica, June 4 2019.
-7 Electric Vehicles: tracking clean energy process, International Energy Agency.
-8 Three shifts in road transport that threaten to disrupt oil demand. Bloomberg NEF, June 4 2019.
Post Script:

-Electric Vehicle adoption - about to explode? Or slow & steady? CleanTechnica, November 27, 2020.